Inflation & Dividend-Adjusted Stock Charts

Asset Classes: Stocks vs. Bonds vs. Cash

Dividends Reinvested:

Fri 2016-12-30 to Fri 2017-12-29^?
VFINX ^×
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
VBMFX ^×
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
USDOLLAR ^×
United States Dollar Currency

Returns

Fri 2016-12-30 to Fri 2017-12-29^?	Overall Return	Exponential Trendline
VFINX ^×	+19.14% +19.21%/yr	+16.18%/yr (R²=0.938)
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
VBMFX ^×	+1.32% +1.32%/yr	+1.86%/yr (R²=0.523)
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
USDOLLAR ^×	−2.06% −2.07%/yr	−1.92%/yr (R²=0.932)
United States Dollar Currency

Growth of $10,000

Fri 2016-12-30 to Fri 2017-12-29^?	Start Value	End Value
VFINX ^×	$10,000.00 2016-12-30	$11,913.97 2017-12-29
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
VBMFX ^×	$10,000.00 2016-12-30	$10,131.58 2017-12-29
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
USDOLLAR ^×	$10,000.00 2016-12-30	$9,793.74 2017-12-29
United States Dollar Currency

Annual Returns

Year	VFINX	VBMFX	USDOLLAR
2024 (YTD)	+22.19%	−2.19%	−2.91%
2023	+22.03%	+2.20%	−3.29%
2022	−23.21%	−18.56%	−6.00%
2021	+20.08%	−8.40%	−6.60%
2020	+17.14%	+5.99%	−1.38%
2019	+28.40%	+6.18%	−2.23%
2018	−6.33%	−1.99%	−1.87%
2017	+19.14%	+1.32%	−2.06%
2016	+9.56%	+0.35%	−2.02%
2015	+0.50%	−0.53%	−0.74%
2014	+12.66%	+4.67%	−0.74%
2013	+30.22%	−3.88%	−1.45%
2012	+13.85%	+1.61%	−1.71%
2011	−0.98%	+4.00%	−2.91%
2010	+13.21%	+4.27%	−1.44%
2009	+23.17%	+3.19%	−2.66%
2008	−37.08%	+5.00%	−0.07%
2007	+1.24%	+2.75%	−3.96%
2006	+12.81%	+1.75%	−2.43%
2005	+1.30%	−0.98%	−3.31%
2004	+7.24%	+0.78%	−3.15%
2003	+26.12%	+1.98%	−1.89%
2002	−23.97%	+5.80%	−2.29%
2001	−13.38%	+6.74%	−1.54%
2000	−12.03%	+7.79%	−3.25%
1999	+17.91%	−2.96%	−2.65%
1998	+26.59%	+6.52%	−1.58%
1997	+30.94%	+7.64%	−1.66%
1996	+18.93%	+0.30%	−3.21%
1995	+34.04%	+15.30%	−2.51%
1994	−1.46%	−5.15%	−2.58%
1993	+7.95%	+5.54%	−2.69%
1992	+4.45%	+3.24%	−2.79%
1991	+28.15%	+11.63%	−2.96%
1990	−8.91%	+2.44%	−5.79%
1989	+22.68%	+8.67%	−4.42%
1988	+10.07%	+2.90%	−4.24%
1987	−0.46%	+2.03%	−4.23%
1986	+8.08%	—	−1.11%
1985	+18.17%	—	−3.67%
1984	−0.29%	—	−3.78%
1983	+12.83%	—	−3.65%
1982	+14.85%	—	−3.69%
1981	−16.04%	—	−8.19%
1980	+13.65%	—	−11.12%
1979	−2.24%	—	−11.74%
1978	—	—	−8.27%
1977	—	—	−6.28%
1976	—	—	−4.64%
1975	—	—	−6.49%
1974	—	—	−10.98%
1973	—	—	−8.00%
1972	—	—	−3.30%
1971	—	—	−3.16%
1970	—	—	−5.27%
1969	—	—	−5.83%
1968	—	—	−4.51%
1967	—	—	−2.96%
1966	—	—	−3.34%
1965	—	—	−1.92%
1964	—	—	−0.98%
1963	—	—	−1.54%
1962	—	—	−1.33%
1961	—	—	−0.66%
1960	—	—	−1.40%
1959	—	—	−1.65%
1958	—	—	−1.80%
1957	—	—	−2.79%
1956	—	—	−2.88%
1955	—	—	−0.34%
1954	—	—	+0.68%
1953	—	—	−0.68%
1952	—	—	−0.76%
1951	—	—	−5.70%
1950	—	—	−5.60%
1949	—	—	+2.14%
1948	—	—	−2.89%
1947	—	—	−8.16%
1946	—	—	−15.32%
1945	—	—	−2.20%
1944	—	—	−2.26%
1943	—	—	−2.89%
1942	—	—	−8.24%
1941	—	—	−9.06%
1940	—	—	−0.71%
1939	—	—	+0.00%
1938	—	—	+2.87%
1937	—	—	−2.79%
1936	—	—	−1.44%
1935	—	—	−2.88%
1934	—	—	−1.50%
1933	—	—	−0.75%
1932	—	—	+11.46%
1931	—	—	+10.30%
1930	—	—	+6.80%
1929	—	—	−0.60%
1928	—	—	+1.20%
1927	—	—	+2.30%
1926	—	—	+1.13%
1925	—	—	−3.34%
1924	—	—	+0.00%
1923	—	—	−2.35%
1922	—	—	+2.41%
1921	—	—	+12.09%
1920	—	—	−2.57%
1919	—	—	−12.69%
1918	—	—	−16.96%
1917	—	—	−15.35%
1916	—	—	−11.21%
1915	—	—	−1.92%
1914	—	—	−1.01%
1913	—	—	−1.99%

Drawdowns

Fri 2016-12-30 to Fri 2017-12-29^?	Final Drawdown	Worst Drawdown
VFINX ^×	−0.55%	−2.81% 2017-04-13
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
VBMFX ^×	−0.86%	−1.92% 2017-03-13
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Mutual Fund
USDOLLAR ^×	−2.06%	−2.22% 2017-09-29
United States Dollar Currency

Understanding the Total Real Returns chart

The goal of investing is to preserve and ideally grow wealth, deferring some consumption today to provide for future consumption later. The Total Real Returns chart demonstrates this more clearly than conventional (nominal-dollar, price-only) stock charts, because:

we include the effects of inflation-diminished purchasing power, and
we include the effects of reinvesting dividends from the initial investment.

The y-axis is labeled Purchasing Power (2024 USD), and it represents what economists call inflation-adjusted or constant dollars. It has been adjusted for inflation using the monthly Consumer Price Index data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, it might be simpler to understand the y-axis if we labeled it Baguettes. 🥖

Consider the red line, VFINX. At the left side of the chart, on Fri 2016-12-30, suppose we bought 1 Baguettes worth of VFINX, reinvesting dividends over the years. On the right side of the chart on Fri 2017-12-29, that investment would today be able to buy you much more: 1.191 Baguettes.

In contrast, consider the green line, USDOLLAR, which represents paper dollar bills, or a zero-interest checking account. If on Fri 2016-12-30 you put 1 Baguettes worth of cash into a checking account, today on Fri 2017-12-29 you could now use this cash to buy only 0.9794 Baguettes.

The relative growth or decline indicates how successfully one could have used each of these assets to store wealth on Fri 2016-12-30 to be consumed later on Fri 2017-12-29. In the case of VFINX, you'd have +19.14% Baguettes over the time period shown, while if you held cash (USDOLLAR), you'd have −2.06% Baguettes.

In more technical terms, we're trying to explain the potential confusion between real dollars (the y-axis), and nominal dollars (the USDOLLAR asset).

Understanding the Total Real Drawdowns chart

The Total Real Drawdowns chart shows the decrease in purchasing power relative to that asset's most recent peak. When the asset is setting new all-time highs (in inflation-adjusted, dividend-reinvested terms), the drawdown will be 0%.

Drawdowns measure the perceived level of pain and loss to the investor, as an investor often compares against their peak asset or portfolio value. This is a way of visualizing historical risk and volatility.

Why these specific assets?

On this page, we are only displaying VFINX for stocks and VBMFX for bonds because these are older mutual funds with lots of historical data available. They are probably not the funds you should consider buying today, for many reasons, including:

For Vanguard specifically, there are now "Admiral Shares" that have lower expense ratios than these older "Investor Shares". Examples: VFIAX VBTLX
You might consider a Total Stock Market Fund, which has broader diversification than an S&P 500 Index fund. Example: VTSAX
You might consider buying ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) instead of Mutual Funds. Example: VTI
You might consider buying Total World Stock funds, instead of US-only funds. Examples: VT VTWAX
If you use a different brokerage, you may consider buying their offerings. Examples: FSKAX SCHB

There are more considerations and we are not recommending any funds or securities.

We highly recommend the Bogleheads Wiki as an outstanding educational resource to get started in self-serve investing. The Bogleheads Forum is an excellent community to ask your questions.

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